Wednesday, May 15, 2019

I Shall Never See Its Like

Today marks the 78th anniversary of the beginning of the greatest baseball record in history.  It's not Cal Ripken's consecutive games played or Barry Bonds' homerun record, nor is it Pete Rose's most hits in history, Cy Young's most complete games or career victory marks.

Nope.  It's WAY more impressive and if anything, safer than most of those.  Almost every Major League Baseball record is a mark of cummulative success over a season or a career.  The record that started today is one that is about staying in "the zone" longer than anyone else ever has or likely ever will.

Joe DiMaggio holds the Major League Baseball record for hits in consecutive games with a streak of 56 games.  This incredible feat occured in 1941, beginning on May 15 and ending on July 17.  DiMaggio hit an incredible .408 during his streak (91-for-223), with 15 home runs and 55 runs batted in.

To put that in perspective, the current active hitting streak leader in the MLB sits at 13 games.  The next longest hitting streaks belong to Wee Willy Keeler from 1896 at 45 games and in the modern, live ball era Pete Rose in 1978 at 44 games.  The longest streak in the 21st Century belongs to Jimmy Rollins in 2005-6 at 38 games.

The new (admittedly more sane and logical) methodology of mandatory rest for position players and limiting pitch count for starting pitchers make records like Cal Ripken's consecutive games played and Cy Young's complete game total absolutely unassailable. Records that rely on longevity and
cumulative stats are pretty much unreachable in the modern era and while that's a shame in a way, the players are healthier and will generally have longer careers because of the modern way of managing the game.  Not all bad news there.

The difference lies in the fact that no return to the ways of yesteryear or modern analytic methodology would make the least difference in the possibility of beating the streak.  In my opinion, DiMaggio's record is safe under any baseball regimen.  His record isn't just about skill or strategy.  It defies the math.

Hitting a baseball for a hit is incredibly difficult at the major league level.  A 30% success rate places hitters in the elite of the game.  The idea that a modern hitter working against the analiytics of modern baseball, the (hated, by me at least) shift and the regular appearance of pitches over 100mph could go 56+ games without hanging an 0fer is simply inconceivable.  I will be pleasantly surprised if I ever see anyone beat Rollins' 38 game streak for the rest of my days on the planet.

Lets call Pete Rose's 44 gamer a 4 minute mile.  DiMaggio ran that mile in 3 minutes and 14 seconds.  To put it mathematically differently, there's a 70% chance that a GREAT major league hitter will fail at the plate every single time they bat. To beat the streak, you have to beat that math 57
times IN A ROW.  That's how crazy good DiMaggio was.

We'll see Barry Bonds single season homerun record of 73 threatened and perhaps even bested in my lifetime.  A great base stealer might be able to touch Rickey Henderson's 130 for a season, one day.  These records don't depend on hitting a ball between the lines, day in and day out for 57 games IN A ROW.  Sluggers can slump and recover, base stealers can get on via errors, walks or being hit.  Those marks, as huge as they may be are not beyond the realm of the possible for the right player.
 
DiMaggio shall remain in a league all his own. 

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